Champions League Semi-Final Best Bets – May 5/6

Arsenal will feel they had the better of the first-leg against Atletico Madrid as they return to London following a 1-1 draw. Neither side could truly take control of the tie, although the score being level heading into a home leg for Arsenal plays into their hands. 

Their last match against Atletico in London ended in a dominant 4-0 win over their opponents back in October. At home, the Gunners have won five of their six matches, with the other game ending as a 0-0 draw with Sporting in the last round. With Arsenal a single win away from a Champions League final, I back them to secure a crucial win on Tuesday. 

Atletico Madrid are still very much in their tie against Arsenal, although they would have hoped to have taken advantage of the home leg to head over to London with a lead. The worry for Atleti will be that the last round in the competition saw them beat Barcelona 2-0 in the first-leg before slumping to a 2-1 loss in the second-leg. While their lead from the opener was enough to see them home, they struggled to dictate the play against a Barca side that would have been disappointed to have failed to make more of their chances. 

On the road, Atleti have lost three of their seven matches, winning twice and drawing twice. Across their four matches against English opposition this season, they have won once and lost three times. Worrying for the Spanish outfit is the fact they have been beaten by Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham on each of their three trips to England this term. While I back Atletico to breach Arsenal’s defence, I do not predict that they will secure a crucial win. 

What a game it was between PSG and Bayern Munich as the first-leg of their Champions League semi-final produced arguably the greatest game in the competition’s history. Five goals in the first-half were followed by four goals in the second as the two European giants traded blows in a stunning display of attacking football that saw PSG secure a 5-4 home win. 

While PSG arrive for the second-leg with a one-goal lead, this will not likely last long if the events of the first-leg bleed into the second-leg. 

Bayern Munich have now scored four of more goals in four of their last five in Europe, while they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last six Champions League matches. Whether we will see nine goals scored again remains to be seen, but with the sides one game away from a Champions League final, one goal could easily lead to both sides deciding attack is the best form of defence. 

For PSG, this match is the final hurdle between the French side having a shot at defending their crown in the biggest final in club football or missing out completely. While they will be buoyed by their five-goal salvo in the first-leg, conceding four times including two goals in three second-half minutes to make it 5-4 is a worry. Across their last 10 against Bayern, PSG have lost seven times, winning the other three. The reigning European champions have been in scintillating form of late, but I back Bayern to do what PSG did to them in the first-leg as they secure a win on their own patch.