Europa League Semi-Final Best Bets – May 7

Aston Villa have a real job on their hands ahead of the second-leg of their European semi-final against Nottingham Forest. Conceding from the penalty spot in the first-leg saw Villa slip to a 1-0 loss, which constituted their first defeat since a 2-1 loss to Go Ahead Eagles, with nine wins coming between these two defeats. While Villa are still very much in this tie, they cannot afford to be complacent against a stubborn Forest side. 

Prior to their loss to their opponents, Villa had secured nine consecutive European wins. Positively for Villa, they are yet to be denied victory on their own patch in the competition. Wins to nil over Bologna in the group stage and quarter-finals, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Lille have come alongside battling victories over Young Boys and Salzburg. When the football has come to Villa Park, the home side have not disappointed.

Nottingham Forest would have hoped to end their home leg against Villa with a bigger lead, but they at least arrive ahead in the tie. Their 1-0 win on their own patch was an impressive result, but they will face a real test if they are to secure their place in the showpiece final despite leading at half-time in the tie. 

In truth, the first goal in this tie is likely going to decide which side has a shot at the trophy. Forest arrive for this one having won their last five in all competitions, while they are unbeaten in their last 10 across tournaments. With five clean sheets coming in this time and having refused to concede more than one goal in any match across this run, Forest have looked very good at the back. 

For Villa, the focus has to be on breaking Forest down and forcing them into making mistakes. The pressure will begin to ramp up if they can score with the home crowd baying for a shot in the final. While Forest have been outstanding of late, I am backing Villa to secure the win in this one in a cagey semi-final second-leg. 

Despite losing the first-leg of their clash with Braga 2-1, Freiburg will know they are well and truly in this tie with at least 90 minutes still to come. The real frustration will be that despite dragging themselves level in the 16th minute, they were left stunned as Braga scored in the 92nd minute to forge ahead on the scoreboard. Defeat saw Freiburg’s run of three consecutive European wins brought to an end, with the side in need of a bounce back victory at the first time of asking. 

Braga come into their second-leg with Freiburg knowing that anything other than a loss will see them through to the Europa League final at the end of the 90 minutes. Defeat by one goal will see the tie go to extra time, meaning the travelling side have a decent buffer heading into this one. The major worry for the side will be that they have failed to win three of their last five on the road, drawing twice and losing once. 

Braga notched a win by a single goal in the first-leg as the pair showed that they were nearly inseparable on the scoreboard. With Braga likely to arrive looking to keep things tight, I am backing Freiburg to win this match by a single goal as the tie is sent into extra time.